the poles of innovation and predictability

Innovation and predictability are incompatible.

You can’t offer both. You can’t have both. They’re on a spectrum - the closer you get to one, the further you get from the other.

Innovation requires inefficiency and waste. It’s unpredictable by definition.

If you’re paying for custom software. the best way to waste money and drive yourself crazy is to chase innovation and expect predictability.

If you’re building custom software, putting down a firm estimate when you know the project requires innovation is a great way to waste your client’s money and drive them crazy.

So where do you need to land on the spectrum? It will be dictated by your budget, your market, your solution space, your team, and many other factors. Define these, and commit.